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QNB Highlights AIs Dual Role for Emerging Markets Amid Rapid Global Growth
On a hot September day in Doha, Qatar National Bank (QNB) released a weekly commentary that sounded a warning: artificial intelligence could become the new yardstick for prosperity in emerging economies. The bank’s analysis, published on September 12 2026, argues that early investment in digital infrastructure, data ecosystems, and skills development will decide whether developing countries can harness AI for catch‑up growth or risk falling further behind.
QNB anchors its argument in the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development’s (UNCTAD) projection that the global AI market will expand roughly twenty‑five‑fold to about USD 4.8 trillion by 2033. While advanced economies stand to gain productivity, the technology presents a mixed bag of opportunities and risks for emerging markets. The bank notes that AI can accelerate development, improve public services, and enable industrial know‑how, yet it can also erode long‑standing competitive advantages and widen the gap between richer and poorer nations.
In education, AI translation models can support regional dialects and low‑resource languages, cutting communication barriers. Personalized tutoring systems could broaden access to quality education and tailor lessons to individual skill levels. In healthcare, AI‑assisted diagnostics are poised to extend services to rural areas and potentially improve infant mortality and life expectancy. In finance, the commentary explains that AI‑based credit scoring, which leverages unstructured and behavioral data, can increase credit availability for micro‑finance borrowers while reducing risk.
The bank also highlights the role of mobile technology, which has allowed many developing countries to bypass fixed‑line broadband. AI can help these economies leapfrog traditional constraints and expand digital services. Emerging markets already exported more than USD 1 trillion in digitally deliverable services in 2024, the commentary notes, and AI could reinforce this momentum and create new industries.
However, QNB cautions that AI will disrupt labor markets and the development model that has long supported emerging economies. The bank cites the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which estimates that around 40 % of jobs in emerging markets are exposed to AI, especially in industries and services with high levels of manual and routine work. Generative AI and AI agents can now perform simple cognitive tasks, data processing and basic billing at a lower cost than overseas staff. The impact is already visible in India’s USD 300 billion IT outsourcing industry, where routine junior developer and business process outsourcing roles are heavily exposed, leading to sharp drops in campus recruitment. The commentary reports that the Nifty IT index is down about 15 % this year, compared with a 20 % gain in the broader MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
QNB’s analysis concludes that a three‑front strategy—building digital infrastructure, developing data ecosystems, and investing in skills—will be essential for emerging markets to convert AI into a growth engine. The bank cautions that failure to act could widen the technological divide, making AI a central determinant of economic divergence in the coming years.
At present, the global AI market is expanding rapidly, and emerging economies face a critical decision point. While the potential benefits in education, healthcare, finance and mobile services are significant, the risk of job displacement and widening inequality remains high. The next few years will determine whether developing countries can leverage AI for inclusive growth or whether the technology will reinforce existing disparities.
QNB anchors its argument in the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development’s (UNCTAD) projection that the global AI market will expand roughly twenty‑five‑fold to about USD 4.8 trillion by 2033. While advanced economies stand to gain productivity, the technology presents a mixed bag of opportunities and risks for emerging markets. The bank notes that AI can accelerate development, improve public services, and enable industrial know‑how, yet it can also erode long‑standing competitive advantages and widen the gap between richer and poorer nations.
In education, AI translation models can support regional dialects and low‑resource languages, cutting communication barriers. Personalized tutoring systems could broaden access to quality education and tailor lessons to individual skill levels. In healthcare, AI‑assisted diagnostics are poised to extend services to rural areas and potentially improve infant mortality and life expectancy. In finance, the commentary explains that AI‑based credit scoring, which leverages unstructured and behavioral data, can increase credit availability for micro‑finance borrowers while reducing risk.
The bank also highlights the role of mobile technology, which has allowed many developing countries to bypass fixed‑line broadband. AI can help these economies leapfrog traditional constraints and expand digital services. Emerging markets already exported more than USD 1 trillion in digitally deliverable services in 2024, the commentary notes, and AI could reinforce this momentum and create new industries.
However, QNB cautions that AI will disrupt labor markets and the development model that has long supported emerging economies. The bank cites the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which estimates that around 40 % of jobs in emerging markets are exposed to AI, especially in industries and services with high levels of manual and routine work. Generative AI and AI agents can now perform simple cognitive tasks, data processing and basic billing at a lower cost than overseas staff. The impact is already visible in India’s USD 300 billion IT outsourcing industry, where routine junior developer and business process outsourcing roles are heavily exposed, leading to sharp drops in campus recruitment. The commentary reports that the Nifty IT index is down about 15 % this year, compared with a 20 % gain in the broader MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
QNB’s analysis concludes that a three‑front strategy—building digital infrastructure, developing data ecosystems, and investing in skills—will be essential for emerging markets to convert AI into a growth engine. The bank cautions that failure to act could widen the technological divide, making AI a central determinant of economic divergence in the coming years.
At present, the global AI market is expanding rapidly, and emerging economies face a critical decision point. While the potential benefits in education, healthcare, finance and mobile services are significant, the risk of job displacement and widening inequality remains high. The next few years will determine whether developing countries can leverage AI for inclusive growth or whether the technology will reinforce existing disparities.
